Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will garner 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
Clinton has 4.8 percentage points less and Trump has 4.8 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.