Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.9 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.9 percentage points.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
Clinton has 2.3 percentage points less and Trump has 2.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.