Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who replied, 52.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7, among a random sample of 815 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.4 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.