Results of a new poll carried out by Quinnipiac were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular importance.
Quinnipiac poll results
The poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7 among 812 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 48.5%. In comparison to numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.2 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.