Primary model: Trump with small lead

The Primary model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.7 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 5.9 percentage points less and Trump has 5.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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