Suffolk University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27 among 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.2%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.