Susquehanna published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Susquehanna poll results
The poll was in the field between July 31 and August 4. The sample size was 772 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they often contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 44.1% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 44.9%. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Susquehanna poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 45.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.