Franklin & Marshall released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2, among a random sample of 389 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-6.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often include substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 55.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.