Pennsylvania: Clinton holds slight advantage in latest PPP (D) poll
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 29 to July 31 among 1505 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.5 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 55.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 3.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.