CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have often won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The poll was conducted from July 13 to July 15 among 1104 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.6% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio sees Clinton at 48.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.5 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.