Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGov were released. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular value.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 13 to July 15 with 1104 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is negligible.