Results of a new poll administered by Suffolk University were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular value.
Suffolk University poll results
The poll was conducted from July 18 to July 20. A total of 500 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 50.0% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.