Ohio: Clinton tied with Trump in latest PPP (D) poll
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, both candidates can draw on identical levels of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from July 22 to July 24 among 1334 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 1.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.5 percentage points. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.0 percentage points less and Trump has 1.0 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.