Methods widely agree on the election outcome
Today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will gain 53.4% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.6% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.8%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.2% of the vote.
With 53.5% in combined polls the vote share for the Democrats is notably high in comparison to previous election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, aggregated polls expected a vote share of 57.5% for Democratic candidate.