Leading indicators model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Leading indicators model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 2.8 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 2.8 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less and Trump has 1.4 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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