Latest Big-issue index model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck
The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the best practice is to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.6 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
Clinton has 2.3 percentage points less and Trump has 2.3 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.