Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will collect 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual index model. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 1.3 percentage points less and Trump has 1.3 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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