Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead
The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will collect 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual index model. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
Clinton has 1.3 percentage points less and Trump has 1.3 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.