Issue-index model: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Issue-index model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they often contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results vs. other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.4 percentage points.

The Issue-index model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 1.7 percentage points more and Trump has 1.7 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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