Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania: Trump behind by 11 points
Results of a new poll administered by Franklin & Marshall were spread. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The poll was in the field between July 29 and August 2. The sample size was 389 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-6.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 43.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 44.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 45.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.7 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.