Fiscal model model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Fiscal model model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.0 Prozentpunkt, while Trump did better with 1.0 Prozentpunkt.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 5.2 percentage points less and Trump has 5.2 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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