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Latest PPP (D) poll in Pennsylvania: Trump trails by a slight margin

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Results of a new poll conducted by PPP (D) were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

PPP (D) poll results
49

Clinton

45

Trump

This poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31, among a random sample of 1505 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 47.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 44.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. In comparison to numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 3 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 45.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.5 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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