Pennsylvania: Clinton holds clear lead in latest Quinnipiac poll
Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
The poll was carried out between July 30 and August 7. The sample size was 815 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 44.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton is currently at 44.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Relative to numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 45.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.7 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.