Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Keys to the White House index model
The Keys to the White House model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will receive 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results vs. other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.2 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 1.9 percentage points less and Trump has 1.9 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.