Hit enter after type your search item

538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will collect 52.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.6%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.2 percentage points.

The 538 (polls-plus) model compared with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 1.0 percentage points less and Trump has 1.0 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

This div height required for enabling the sticky sidebar