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Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Big-issue index model


The Big-issue model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, you should rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.6 percentage points.

The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 2.1 percentage points less and Trump has 2.1 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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