Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, you should rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.6 percentage points.
The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 2.1 percentage points less and Trump has 2.1 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.