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Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest Electoral-cycle model


The Electoral-cycle model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.

The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 4.5 percentage points less and Trump has 4.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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