Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.
The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 4.5 percentage points less and Trump has 4.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.