The PollyVote forecasts win for Clinton

Today, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will collect 53.2% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.8% for Trump.

Looking at Polly's components

There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 50.8%.

Index models predict a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.2% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 11.2 percentage points.

When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably high with 53.8% in aggregated polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, aggregated polls expected a vote share of 58.0% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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