Putting the results in context

NYT Upshot released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

The poll was conducted with 0 respondents.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 10.1% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. To compare: Only 9.6% was obtained by Clinton in the NYT Upshot poll on August 15, for Trump this number was 0.0%.

Results vs. other polls

When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.4% and Trump % of the two-party vote in New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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