NYT Upshot released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Iowa were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Iowa, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
NYT Upshot poll results
This poll was conducted , among a random sample of 0 participants.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 42.3% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. In the most recent NYT Upshot poll on August 15 Clinton received only 41.7%, while Trump received 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.5% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Iowa.