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Primary model: Trump with small lead


The Primary model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 52.5%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.3 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 5.6 percentage points less and Trump has 5.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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