Primary model: Clinton trails by a small margin
The Primary model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton and 52.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.7 percentage points.
The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 5.6 percentage points less and Trump has 5.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.