Franklin & Marshall published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 49.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2 with 389 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.