PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of respondents said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 29 to July 31 among 1505 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 55.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 3.0 percentage points higher. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.