Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 52.0% of interviewees would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7, among a random sample of 815 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.