Pennsylvania: New Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton with 10 points lead

Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

According to the results, 52.0% of interviewees would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7, among a random sample of 815 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls may incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.