Pennsylvania: Healthy advantage for Clinton in recent Susquehanna poll
Susquehanna published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Susquehanna poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4, among a random sample of 772 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 55.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the Susquehanna poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.