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Pennsylvania: 10 points lead for Clinton in new Susquehanna poll


Results of a new poll carried out by Susquehanna were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Susquehanna poll results




Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4. A total of 772 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump. To compare: Only 44.1% was gained by Clinton in the Susquehanna poll on August 16, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.2%. Compared to her numbers in the Susquehanna poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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