QuinnipiacQuinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll results
The poll was carried out from July 30 to August 7 with 812 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 47.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.0% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Ohio.