Ohio: Narrow lead for Clinton in latest NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ poll
Results of a new poll carried out by NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ were released. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often gained similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ poll results
The poll was carried out from August 3 to August 7 among 889 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 46.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.0% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Ohio.