Ohio: Clinton with small advantage in CBS News/YouGov poll

Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGov were distributed. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular importance.

Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from July 13 to July 15 with 1104 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently runs at 51.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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