Ohio: Clinton tied with Trump in new PPP (D) poll
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically achieved similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton can draw on equal levels of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from July 22 to July 24, among a random sample of 1334 registered voters. The error margin is +/-2.7 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 1.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.5 percentage points. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.0 percentage points less and Trump has 1.0 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.