New Vox.Com model: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie
The Vox.Com model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will receive 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 50.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.1 percentage points.
The Vox.Com model compared with PollyVote's prediction
Clinton has 4.1 percentage points less and Trump has 4.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.