New Time-for-change model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck

The Time-for-change model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 4.6 percentage points less and Trump has 4.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.