New Time-for-change model: Clinton and Trump virtually tied
The Time-for-change model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton and 51.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 51.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.2 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 4.5 percentage points less and Trump has 4.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.