New Lockerbie model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck
The Lockerbie model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.2 percentage points.
The Lockerbie model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 2.8 percentage points less and Trump has 2.8 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.