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New Keys to the White House index model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied


The Keys to the White House model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.2 percentage points.

The Keys to the White House model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 1.7 percentage points less and Trump has 1.7 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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