New Keys to the White House index model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
The Keys to the White House model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.2 percentage points.
The Keys to the White House model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 1.7 percentage points less and Trump has 1.7 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.