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New Keys to the White House index model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck


The Keys to the White House model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.2 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 1.6 percentage points less and Trump has 1.6 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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