New Keys to the White House index model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck
The Keys to the White House model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.2 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
Clinton has 1.6 percentage points less and Trump has 1.6 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.