New Keys to the White House index model: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat
The Keys to the White House model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.2 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 1.6 percentage points less and Trump has 1.6 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.