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New Keys to the White House index model: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat


The Keys to the White House model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.2 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 1.6 percentage points less and Trump has 1.6 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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