New Big-issue index model: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

The Big-issue model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the best practice is to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.6 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 2.0 percentage points less and Trump has 2.0 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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