Leading indicators model: Trump trails by a small margin
The Leading indicators model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often include large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 2.8 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 2.8 percentage points.
The Leading indicators model compared with PollyVote's prediction
Clinton has 1.2 percentage points less and Trump has 1.2 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.