Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead

The Leading indicators model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.2 percentage points.

The Leading indicators model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 1.1 percentage points less and Trump has 1.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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