The Leading indicators model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.2 percentage points.
The Leading indicators model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
Clinton has 1.1 percentage points less and Trump has 1.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.